Bull Market Lessons From a New York Deli

If you could banter with the waiters, you had a good chance of nailing your standup gig...

Located in the heart of Broadway, Lindy's delicatessen was a mainstay for up-and-coming talent... particularly in New York's comedy scene.

Legends spanning from the Marx Brothers to Alan King frequented the famed establishment. King even said hanging out at Lindy's was part of what it took to make it big.

So many comics came to the diner that the waiters got in on the fun. They gained a reputation for being sarcastic with customers... and even trying to "out funny" the comics.

Keeping up with the waiters became a sort of litmus test for early success.

But it didn't guarantee you a long career. For that, we turn to Albert Goldman...

Goldman was a historian who documented the lives of some of the world's biggest celebrities...

He also spent some time studying the New York comedy scene.

And in a 1964 piece for The New Republic, he profiled the "bald-headed, cigar-chomping know-it-alls who foregather every night at Lindy's."

According to Goldman, comics who were lucky enough to earn a weekly or monthly TV slot weren't long for the scene. Since they only had a finite number of jokes, they would use up their material fast.

And that was it for their television life spans.

Instead, he suggested comics confine themselves to a few special appearances (among other considerations).

Goldman dubbed his rule "Lindy's Law." The idea soon spread like wildfire.

And eventually, it was even picked up by the financial world...

Renowned trader and market philosopher Nassim Taleb added his own spin on Lindy's Law. He coined it "the Lindy Effect."

Taleb posited that for durable goods – things like concepts or technologies – you can infer the good's expected lifespan based on its current longevity.

If a Broadway show survives one week, it will probably survive another. If it survives five years, it's almost guaranteed to survive another five.

And the Lindy Effect extends far beyond showbiz... to the rest of the business world. The longer a company or technology has survived, the more likely it'll stick around in the future.

Tech innovator IBM, for example, has been around since 1911. It will likely exist in some form for a long time to come.

Folks, when it comes down to it... the Lindy Effect is just another way to describe one of the market's most powerful forces...

I'm talking about momentum.

Researchers have been studying stock momentum for decades. They've found that a stock's past performance is one of the best indicators of future performance.

And if you add in strong, growing profits – you've got a recipe for success.

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This isn't the time to sit on the sidelines. Today's market is backed by some serious momentum. The next double could be right around the corner.

Regards,

Joel Litman
September 25, 2025