Trump vs. Europe (and How to Win)

Europe can no longer count on the U.S. for protection...

That was the message from Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference on February 14.

Speaking to a room of international dignitaries, Vance said President Donald Trump has made it clear "he believes that our European friends must play a bigger role in the future of this continent."

His comments came just two days after similar ones from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. At a NATO meeting on February 12, Hegseth pushed for Europe to take a stronger hand in its own defense and rely less on U.S. assistance.

The sentiment isn't all that surprising... if you've been paying attention. Trump has been urging European nations to increase their defense spending for years.

Many of them brushed off the warnings, taking American military support as a given.

But as the Pentagon shifts its focus away from Europe under Trump, NATO allies are beginning to grasp the reality... They'll have to defend themselves against military threats.

Europe has spent decades outsourcing most of its defense requirements...

The U.S. currently makes up two-thirds of NATO's defense spending, despite accounting for just over 50% of combined GDP. And we've been Europe's primary security provider since the creation of NATO in 1949.

But the Trump administration has had enough. Hegseth is pushing for NATO members to spend 5% of GDP on defense needs each year... well above the current 2% target.

That's a tall order, considering only 23 of the 32 NATO members hit 2% last year.

Some countries – particularly the ones closest to Russia – are already stepping up their defense efforts.

Lithuania and Estonia intend to raise military spending to more than 5% of their respective GDPs. Poland has already surpassed 4%.

And while Hegseth's 5% goal is probably unrealistic for all member states, higher levels will likely become standard practice. NATO is expected to raise its defense-spending target to 3% or 3.5% at its next summit in June.

That gives investors some time to figure where the money will flow...

This defense-spending surge isn't just about paying soldiers or covering administrative costs. Europe will need to replace the weapons, equipment, and advanced military technology it has been getting from the U.S.

Entire countries – including giants like Germany and France – could nearly double their defense budgets over the next five years.

The biggest winners won't be slow-moving Pentagon contractors tied up in bureaucracy. They'll be the arms manufacturers producing cutting-edge equipment to fortify Europe.

Tomorrow, we'll take a closer look at one of those potential winners... a Swedish arms maker that specializes in advanced military tech.

Investors believed for a long time that U.S. defense contractors were the main beneficiaries of global military spending. But that's no longer the case.

Folks who recognize this shift early can get ahead of the market – and capitalize on new opportunities in defense.

Regards,

Joel Litman
March 3, 2025