Archive

This Stock Wins No Matter Who Dominates the 'Streaming Wars'

By Joel Litman

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Today, there are as many streaming services as there are quality TV shows. Some might even argue there are more streaming services... When the news broke that Disney (DIS) is pulling its content off Netflix (NFLX) – which I touched on yesterday – picking a service became a harder decision. With names like Apple TV+, […]

Never Trust 'Hollywood Accounting'

By Joel Litman

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Movie companies have made billions bringing us entertainment over the past 100 years... For example, Avengers: Endgame made Disney (DIS) more than $2.7 billion worldwide – seven times its $350 million budget, based on recent box office numbers. And yet, if you took the studios at their word, many of their best films have lost […]

The Fastest Way to Become a Millionaire

By Joel Litman

Monday, September 16, 2019

It's as if airlines want to make you suffer. The average coach seat is less than 17 inches wide. The average American man's shoulders are 16.1 inches across. Still, it's hard to blame the airlines. The business is hypercompetitive. It requires a huge amount of capital. Passengers will buy the ticket that's cheapest, with little […]

How to Avoid the 'Winner's Curse'

By Joel Litman

Friday, September 13, 2019

We call it the "winner's curse"... It's a simple idea. When you're the highest bidder, you almost always overpay. Winning means you had the most optimistic view of an asset's value. That is, unless you know something that everyone else is missing. It shows up in online auctions on eBay. It happens in bidding wars […]

One Stock Flashing Warning Signs for the Market

By Joel Litman

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Housing is booming right now. New single-family home prices are up 3% since July 2018. New home sales were up 4.3% in July compared with the same month last year. Year-to-date home sales are up 4.1% relative to the same time last year... and 2018 was a stronger year than 2017. And yet, investors aren't […]

How to Make Sense of the Market's Latest Moves

By Joel Litman

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Earnings growth is the key to a rising stock market. When you buy a stock, you are buying a stream of earnings in the future... If earnings don't grow, or the market perception of earnings doesn't change, a stock won't rise. But if earnings, or market expectations for earnings, do change, stocks move. This is […]

Take Advantage of the Market Like Buffett

By Joel Litman

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Stock markets do not always act rationally. Emotions like fear, greed, and excitement can cloud our better judgement of a situation and lead to suboptimal decisions. Behavioral economics is the analysis of how factors other than rational economic frameworks drive real-life human decisions. You see this play out all the time in the markets. Just […]

The Next Recession Won't Begin Until This Runs Out

By Joel Litman

Monday, September 9, 2019

If you believe the headlines, any number of things could trigger the next recession... Morgan Stanley predicts we will enter a recession within the next nine months due to heightened tariffs from the trade war. Capital Economics says there is a one in three chance the U.S. will be in recession in the next year […]

The Difference Between a Bull Market and a BULL Market

By Joel Litman

Friday, September 6, 2019

Imagine if apparel maker Hanesbrands still relied on the spinning jenny. Or if software giant IBM hadn't updated its servers since the 1980s. We'd be paying more for scratchy underwear. And an IBM "desktop" computer would be a desk. More likely, of course, Hanesbrands and IBM would simply disappear. Companies can't possibly compete without this […]

Welcome to Altimetry

By Joel Litman

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Altimetry community – powered by Valens Research. You have joined a small community of high-powered investors who recognize that the reported financial statements and Wall Street research cannot be trusted. Most of the investment world does not recognize this at all. I feel blessed to be a member […]