Archive

How to Avoid the 'Winner's Curse'

By Joel Litman

Friday, September 13, 2019

We call it the “winner’s curse”… It’s a simple idea. When you’re the highest bidder, you almost always overpay. Winning means you had the most optimistic view of an asset’s value. That is, unless you know something that everyone else is missing. It shows up in online auctions on eBay. It happens in bidding wars […]

One Stock Flashing Warning Signs for the Market

By Joel Litman

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Housing is booming right now. New single-family home prices are up 3% since July 2018. New home sales were up 4.3% in July compared with the same month last year. Year-to-date home sales are up 4.1% relative to the same time last year… and 2018 was a stronger year than 2017. And yet, investors aren’t […]

How to Make Sense of the Market's Latest Moves

By Joel Litman

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Earnings growth is the key to a rising stock market. When you buy a stock, you are buying a stream of earnings in the future… If earnings don’t grow, or the market perception of earnings doesn’t change, a stock won’t rise. But if earnings, or market expectations for earnings, do change, stocks move. This is […]

Take Advantage of the Market Like Buffett

By Joel Litman

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Stock markets do not always act rationally. Emotions like fear, greed, and excitement can cloud our better judgement of a situation and lead to suboptimal decisions. Behavioral economics is the analysis of how factors other than rational economic frameworks drive real-life human decisions. You see this play out all the time in the markets. Just […]

The Next Recession Won't Begin Until This Runs Out

By Joel Litman

Monday, September 9, 2019

If you believe the headlines, any number of things could trigger the next recession… Morgan Stanley predicts we will enter a recession within the next nine months due to heightened tariffs from the trade war. Capital Economics says there is a one in three chance the U.S. will be in recession in the next year […]

The Difference Between a Bull Market and a BULL Market

By Joel Litman

Friday, September 6, 2019

Imagine if apparel maker Hanesbrands still relied on the spinning jenny. Or if software giant IBM hadn’t updated its servers since the 1980s. We’d be paying more for scratchy underwear. And an IBM “desktop” computer would be a desk. More likely, of course, Hanesbrands and IBM would simply disappear. Companies can’t possibly compete without this […]

Welcome to Altimetry

By Joel Litman

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Altimetry community – powered by Valens Research. You have joined a small community of high-powered investors who recognize that the reported financial statements and Wall Street research cannot be trusted. Most of the investment world does not recognize this at all. I feel blessed to be a member […]